\u201cN\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i v\u1ec1 \u0111\u00e2u: m\u00f9a kh\u00f4 Mekong n\u0103m 2024\u201d l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a h\u1ed9i th\u1ea3o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c di\u1ec5n ra h\u00f4m 25 th\u00e1ng M\u1ed9t, 2024, t\u1ea1i Stimson Center \u1edf Washington DC.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Nhi\u1ec1u chuy\u00ean gia v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 s\u00f4ng Mekong c\u00f3 m\u1eb7t t\u1ea1i h\u1ed9i th\u1ea3o, \u0111\u01b0a ra nhi\u1ec1u ph\u00e2n t\u00edch li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u00ean s\u00f4ng Mekong, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u01b0a, ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eadp th\u1ee7y \u0111i\u1ec7n, hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng El Nino, s\u1ef1 ph\u00ecnh to c\u1ee7a h\u1ed3 Tonlesap trong c\u00e1c n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y\u2026 nh\u1eb1m d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh s\u00f4ng Mekong trong n\u0103m t\u1edbi.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Th\u1ee7y \u0111i\u1ec7n \u1edf th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n<\/strong><\/p>\n TS. Brian Eyler, Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u00e0 Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eadp s\u00f4ng Mekong, \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eadp th\u1ee7y \u0111i\u1ec7n th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n \u0111\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a s\u00f4ng Mekong. Khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y, ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eadp c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f2n c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eadp c\u1ee7a L\u00e0o v\u00e0 Th\u00e1i Lan.<\/p>\n Hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i khu v\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng s\u00f4ng Mekong, m\u1ef1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ed1ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u0103m qua, theo T.S Brian Eyler.<\/p>\n Trong m\u00f9a kh\u00f4, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1eadp nh\u01b0 Ti\u1ec3u Loan c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang x\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 n\u00f3 chi\u1ebfm 23% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho khu v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Mekong. Vi\u1ec7c x\u1ea3 l\u0169 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1eadp Ti\u1ec3u Loan khi\u1ebfn l\u00e0m d\u00e2ng n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 khu v\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Th\u00e1i Lan. TS. Brian Eyler cho bi\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1eadp Ti\u1ec3u Loan x\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u00edch d\u1ed3n kh\u00e1c, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng s\u00f4ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ec7 sinh th\u00e1i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eddi s\u1ed1ng x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u1edf l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c s\u00f4ng Mekong.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00d4ng Alan Basist, ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u201cEyes on Earth\u201d (t\u1ea1m d\u1ecbch l\u00e0 \u201cQuan s\u00e1t tr\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea5t\u201d) \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y m\u1ed9t b\u1ee9c tranh chung v\u1ec1 nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c. C\u0103n c\u1ee9 tr\u00ean s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u00e1c n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, \u00f4ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00f9ng h\u1ea1 l\u01b0u s\u00f4ng Mekong c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong \u0111\u1ea7u m\u00f9a m\u01b0a n\u0103m nay s\u1ebd th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh c\u00e1c n\u0103m qua.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u0110\u1ed3ng b\u1eb1ng s\u00f4ng C\u1eedu Long d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 h\u1ed3 Tonlesap \u1edf Campuchia. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng Alan.<\/p>\n \u00d4ng Alan n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng so s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi 30 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y xu h\u01b0\u1edbng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00e1 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n Trong n\u0103m n\u0103m qua, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eadp \u1edf h\u1ea1 ngu\u1ed3n c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chung l\u00e0 kh\u00e1 khan hi\u1ebfm n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n C\u00e1c \u0111\u1eadp th\u1ee7y \u0111i\u1ec7n Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u1edf th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n c\u0169ng c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u gi\u1ea3m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u01b0 v\u1eady.\u00a0 \u0110\u1eadp Ti\u1ec3u Loan v\u00e0 N\u1ecda Tr\u00e1t \u0110\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00e1 l\u00e0 khan hi\u1ebfm n\u01b0\u1edbc, trong khi hai \u0111\u1eadp n\u00e0y chi\u1ebfm 50% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eadp th\u1ee7y \u0111i\u1ec7n th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n. \u00d4ng Alan cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ea1 l\u01b0u c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u00edch l\u0169y n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 n\u00e0y.\u00a0<\/p>\n Do \u0111\u00f3, c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t ra l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eadp l\u1edbn \u1edf th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n Mekong c\u00f3 \u0111ang th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00fang ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 hay kh\u00f4ng. V\u1ecb ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a \u201cEyes on Earth\u201d c\u00f2n n\u00f3i c\u00e1c d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a Mekong b\u1ecb b\u00f3p m\u00e9o n\u00ean t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ebfn khu v\u1ef1c. Trong n\u0103m 2022, \u0111\u00f4i khi th\u00e1ng 2, th\u00e1ng 3 n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft, g\u00e2y ng\u1eadp l\u1ee5t ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00f4i khi n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1ea1i thi\u1ebfu, kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 nhu c\u1ea7u. Trong n\u0103m 2023, th\u00e1ng 4 v\u00e0 5 th\u00ec n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u0169ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n do h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n.\u00a0<\/p>\n Ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eadp th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n th\u00ec c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eadp c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ef1c n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u00f4ng Mekong? \u00d4ng Alan l\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n L\u00e0o, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eadp \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng s\u00f4ng Mekong. N\u0103m 2023 h\u1ea1 l\u01b0u Mekong \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ea5y l\u0169 m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 m\u01b0a. Nh\u1eefng v\u00f9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u00f3 m\u00f9a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u1ed5i th\u00ec n\u0103m 2023 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n n\u1eefa.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Bi\u1ec3n h\u1ed3 Tonlesap<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00d4ng Alan Basist nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y ng\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eeb s\u00f4ng Mekong v\u00e0o h\u1ed3 Tonlesap \u1edf Campuchia \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u00f9ng h\u1ea1 l\u01b0u.\u00a0<\/span>V\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i m\u00f9a m\u01b0a, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 10, 11 v\u00e0 12, s\u00f4ng Mekong ch\u1ea3y ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o h\u1ed3 Tonlesap.\u00a0Theo \u00f4ng Alan,\u00a0khi m\u1ef1c n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u00f4ng Mekong cao h\u01a1n h\u1ed3 Tonlesap, n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u00f4ng khi \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 l\u00fac th\u1eadm ch\u00ed cao h\u01a1n m\u1ef1c n\u01b0\u1edbc bi\u1ec3n. Khi \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o h\u1ed3 Tonlesap. Trong h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0n n\u0103m, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng cho canh t\u00e1c, nu\u00f4i tr\u1ed3ng th\u1ee7y s\u1ea3n. Khi d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y ng\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn an ninh l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c, x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u00d4ng Alan cho bi\u1ebft trong n\u0103m 2023, \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 11 th\u00ec d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y ng\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n n\u1eefa m\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1eeb Tonlesap \u0111\u1ed5 ra l\u01b0u v\u1ef1c xung quanh. Ngo\u00e0i ra, m\u00f9a m\u01b0a l\u00e0m h\u1ed3 Tonlesap ph\u00ecnh to h\u01a1n. L\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u01b0\u1edbc cung c\u1ea5p cho d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y ng\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u0103m 2022 v\u00e0o h\u1ed3 Tonlesap ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu t\u1eeb c\u00e1c nh\u00e1nh s\u00f4ng. M\u1ef1c n\u01b0\u1edbc xung quanh h\u1ed3 cao h\u01a1n h\u1ed3 v\u00e0 ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o h\u1ed3 l\u00e0m h\u1ed3 Tonlesap ph\u00ecnh to ra. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u00ecnh to l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh, c\u00f3 \u00edch cho ngh\u1ec1 c\u00e1, x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i, m\u00f4i sinh.\u00a0<\/p>\n B\u00e0 Chea Seila, \u0110i\u1ec1u ph\u1ed1i vi\u00ean d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u1ee7a Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh \u201cUSAID Wonders of the Mekong\u201d cho bi\u1ebft h\u01a1n 30% ng\u00e0nh \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1eaft c\u00e1 \u1edf Campuchia l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh c\u00e1 di c\u01b0. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 r\u1ed1i lo\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y Mekong \u0111\u00e3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng di c\u01b0 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1. C\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i h\u01b0\u1edbng di c\u01b0 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn an sinh x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong khu v\u1ef1c.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n TS. Brian cho bi\u1ebft hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu c\u00f2n t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1edbi c\u00e1c lo\u00e0i chim trong khu v\u1ef1c. C\u00e1c lo\u00e0i chim c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1ea5t t\u1ed5 m\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i di c\u01b0 sang v\u00f9ng kh\u00e1c. S\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 lo\u00e0i chim.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n El Nino\u00a0v\u00e0 x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n TS. Nguy\u1ec5n V\u0103n Huy, Chuy\u00ean gia t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c ISET International, n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a xu h\u01b0\u1edbng Elnino t\u1edbi kh\u00ed h\u1eadu trong khu v\u1ef1c n\u0103m 2024.\u00a0 \u00d4ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng 1,9 \u0111\u1ed9 C, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2015 v\u00e0 2016 (2,5 \u0111\u1ed9 C.) Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng Elnino s\u1ebd g\u1ea7n gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 2018 v\u00e0 2019. Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng El Nino s\u1ebd d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2024 v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng Elso, sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 La Nina. Ch\u00fang s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra m\u01b0a l\u1edbn \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c th\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u01b0u v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 l\u01b0u Mekong. N\u1ebfu c\u00f3 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n th\u00ec ch\u1ec9 ng\u1eafn ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n TS. Huy cho bi\u1ebft t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2023 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2024 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a theo th\u00e1ng \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh \u1edf C\u1ea7n Th\u01a1, An Giang, Ki\u00ean Giang, B\u1ea1c Li\u00eau.\u00a0 N\u00f3 t\u1ea1o ra kh\u00f4 h\u1ea1n \u1edf h\u1ea1 l\u01b0u Mekong \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Do \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ebd c\u00f3 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n trong v\u00f9ng. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng th\u00e1ng 2 v\u00e0 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3.\u00a0<\/p>\n