{"id":58351,"date":"2025-07-07T17:30:16","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T00:30:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vietvalley.com\/co-hoi-va-thach-thuc-nao-cho-viet-nam-truoc-muc-thue-ong-trump-dua-ra\/"},"modified":"2025-07-07T17:30:16","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T00:30:16","slug":"co-hoi-va-thach-thuc-nao-cho-viet-nam-truoc-muc-thue-ong-trump-dua-ra","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vietvalley.com\/en\/co-hoi-va-thach-thuc-nao-cho-viet-nam-truoc-muc-thue-ong-trump-dua-ra\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u01a1 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c n\u00e0o cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf \u00f4ng Trump \u0111\u01b0a ra?"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u00e1p thu\u1ebf<\/a> 20% cho h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0o M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 40% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u201cqu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh\u201d qua Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0o M\u1ef9, m\u1ed9t bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. \u0110\u1ed5i l\u1ea1i, Vi\u1ec7t Nam m\u1edf c\u1eeda th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/a> ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n cho h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf 0%. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00f4ng Trump c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 sau cu\u1ed9c \u0111i\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e0m<\/a> v\u1edbi T\u1ed5ng B\u00ed th\u01b0 T\u00f4 L\u00e2m. <\/p>\n

D\u1ec5 th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1ebf c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump nh\u1eafm \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i quan h\u1ec7 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c, Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 M\u1ef9. Vi\u1ec7t Nam s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i g\u00ec v\u00e0 h\u1ea1i g\u00ec? V\u00e0 li\u1ec7u n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi c\u00e1i h\u1ea1i v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t huy \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1i l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 hay kh\u00f4ng? <\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u1eadn g\u00ec t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch thu\u1ebf M\u1ef9 \u00e1p l\u00ean Trung Qu\u1ed1c? <\/h3>\n

M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t nhi\u1ec1u l\u1edbp thu\u1ebf r\u1ea5t cao l\u00ean h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c. C\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf n\u00e0y thay \u0111\u1ed5i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c<\/a>, ban \u0111\u1ea7u, \u1edf m\u1ee9c 10% c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng M\u1ed9t, sau \u0111\u00f3 th\u00eam m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf b\u1ed5 sung 34%, n\u00e2ng t\u1ed5ng m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf l\u00ean 54%. Th\u1eadm ch\u00ed, m\u1ed9t s\u1eafc l\u1ec7nh h\u00e0nh ph\u00e1p v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 8 th\u00e1ng T\u01b0 n\u00e2ng m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf l\u00ean h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00ean 104%, v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u00ean 145%. \u0110\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 12 th\u00e1ng N\u0103m, 2025, c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn gi\u1ea3m 115% thu\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ee9ng, \u0111\u01b0a m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf l\u00ean h\u00e0ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c xu\u1ed1ng 56% trong 90 ng\u00e0y. Ngo\u00e0i ra, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf cao v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p l\u00ean m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 ri\u00eang, t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh nhi\u1ec1u \u201cl\u1edbp thu\u1ebf\u201d ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p.<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf \u0111e d\u1ecda ban \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb 46% xu\u1ed1ng 20% cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam cho th\u1ea5y M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111a chi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam so v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi RFA trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u1ea9n danh, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u1edf H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t: <\/p>\n

\u201c\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3m th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t M\u1ef9. Vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec thu\u1ebf cao v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf v\u1ec1 thu\u1ebf quan m\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u1eebng c\u00f3 so v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi Trump \u1edf nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 m\u1ed9t.<\/i><\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u201c\u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ebfn thay th\u1ebf\u201d trong chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i ph\u00eda M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n k\u1ef9 l\u01b0\u1ee1ng m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf 20% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam, \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u201cch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn\u201d m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m t\u1ed5n h\u1ea1i qu\u00e1 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean Trung Qu\u1ed1c. R\u00f5 r\u00e0ng m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn l\u00e0 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ecfi Trung Qu\u1ed1c.\u201d <\/i><\/p>\n

Th\u1ebf nh\u01b0ng, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 M\u1ef9 \u00e1p thu\u1ebf cao l\u00ean h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c h\u01a1n Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c sang khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ecf. <\/p>\n

K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2018, khu v\u1ef1c \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ebfn cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng, tr\u00e1nh l\u1ec7 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o Trung Qu\u1ed1c. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i<\/a> t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o ASEAN t\u0103ng cao. \u0110\u1ec3 n\u00e9 tr\u00e1nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t thu\u1ebf quan c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p Trung Qu\u1ed1c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng<\/a> nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u qua c\u00e1c k\u00eanh thay th\u1ebf. <\/p>\n

H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f2n thu\u1ebf quan l\u1edbn t\u1eeb M\u1ef9. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0nh xu\u1ea5t n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 \u201cch\u1ebft ch\u00f9m\u201d c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p Trung Qu\u1ed1c qu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh qua khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 v\u00e0o M\u1ef9. \u0110i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh l\u00e0 ng\u00e0nh pin n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi<\/a> t\u1eeb \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb M\u1ef9 \u00e1p thu\u1ebf l\u00ean t\u1edbi m\u1ee9c kh\u00f4ng t\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00e0 814%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u00f3 ch\u01b0a ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng. M\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u1edf H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i cho bi\u1ebft th\u00eam m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n n\u1ea1n kh\u00e1c, song h\u00e0nh v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1ebf c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump: <\/p>\n

\u201cTrung Qu\u1ed1c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u sang ASEAN, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 Vi\u1ec7t Nam, \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra \u00e1p l\u1ef1c c\u1ea1nh tranh l\u00ean c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba. N\u00f3 khi\u1ebfn nh\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ty nh\u1ecf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u00f4ng l\u1edbn n\u1ed5i ho\u1eb7c ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Vi\u1ec7t Nam, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 kh\u00e1c, \u0111ang \u1edf trong t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf \u201ck\u1eb9p gi\u1eefa\u201d hai si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng. Khi c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng thu h\u00fat \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00ec h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 qu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 b\u1ecb Trung Qu\u1ed1c ch\u00e8n \u00e9p ng\u00e0y tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba. N\u00f3 l\u00e0m cho ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc trong khu v\u1ef1c l\u00e2m v\u00e0o th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan.\u201d <\/i><\/p>\n

Th\u1ef1c thi thu\u1ebf \u201cqu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh\u201d 40% b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u00e0o?<\/h3>\n

M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c cao h\u01a1n Vi\u1ec7t Nam th\u00ec Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i. C\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd \u0111i v\u00f2ng qua Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ec3 n\u00e9 thu\u1ebf. M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf h\u00e0ng qu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh l\u00ean 40%. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u00f3 gi\u00fap ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n h\u00e0ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c qu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh kh\u00f4ng? C\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf. Vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c thi m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf qu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh 40% c\u0169ng t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam. <\/p>\n

R\u1ee7i ro l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a \u201ch\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 qu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh\u201d v\u1ed1n kh\u00f4ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 kh\u00f3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. <\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u d\u1ec5 th\u1ea5y l\u00e0 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p qu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh l\u00e0 gian l\u1eadn r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. Trung Qu\u1ed1c ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u00e3n m\u00e1c t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t ti\u1ebfp \u0111i M\u1ef9. Nh\u01b0ng M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1eed th\u1ebf n\u00e0o v\u1edbi qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i \u201c\u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3\u201d v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m m\u1edbi?<\/p>\n

C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1eb7t ra l\u00e0 l\u00e0m c\u00e1ch n\u00e0o x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh vi\u1ec7c n\u00e9 tr\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 x\u1ea3y ra v\u1edbi t\u1eebng m\u00f3n h\u00e0ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec3 \u00e1p thu\u1ebf 40%.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p Vi\u1ec7t Nam, do ng\u01b0\u1eddi Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0m ch\u1ee7, c\u00f3 h\u00e0m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba th\u1ea5p, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nhi\u1ec1u nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u, \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c. <\/p>\n

Roland Rajah, Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Trung t\u00e2m Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng – Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, m\u1ed9t trung t\u00e2m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch chuy\u00ean tr\u00e1ch thu\u1ed9c Vi\u1ec7n Lowy, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n<\/a> r\u1eb1ng nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam chi\u1ebfm trung b\u00ecnh kho\u1ea3ng 28%. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd kh\u00e1c nhau t\u00f9y theo s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m. <\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, n\u1ebfu Hoa K\u1ef3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a \u201cqu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh\u201d qu\u00e1 r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc, n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i l\u1edbn cho c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn Trung Qu\u1ed1c. <\/p>\n

C\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u00e0y s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft li\u1ec7u h\u1ecd c\u00f3 b\u1ecb \u00e1p m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf 40% hay kh\u00f4ng. Trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi RFA, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t \u0111\u1ec1u cho r\u1eb1ng r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m r\u00f5 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m \u201cqu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh\u201d b\u1eb1ng con s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, cho n\u00ean s\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng n\u00e0y c\u0169ng t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng kinh doanh kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m n\u1ea3n l\u00f2ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

R\u1ee7i ro t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c<\/h3>\n

\u201cTrung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a\u201d l\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t \u0111\u1ec1u nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y v\u00e0 theo d\u00f5i s\u00e2u s\u00e1t. B\u1ed9 Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i Trung Qu\u1ed1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u0111ang xem x\u00e9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn Vi\u1ec7t M\u1ef9 n\u00e0y v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a<\/a> n\u1ebfu l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n h\u1ea1i. C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1eb7t ra l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu Trung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a, h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p n\u00e0o? \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t m\u1ed9t v\u00f2ng xung \u0111\u1ed9t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i m\u1edbi gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c hay kh\u00f4ng? N\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra, n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ebf n\u00e0o t\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam? M\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t v\u1edbi RFA: <\/p>\n

\u201cT\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1edbi nay, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p c\u01b0\u1ee1ng b\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf phi ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c l\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc. C\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh n\u00ean h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 im l\u1eb7ng ho\u1eb7c ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eadn khi b\u1ecb h\u1ecfi. C\u00e1c h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t \u0111a d\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, ho\u00e1 gi\u1ea3i thu\u1ebf quan b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch thao t\u00fang ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, r\u1ed3i c\u1ea5m v\u1eadn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i phi ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c, r\u1ed3i \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ngo\u1ea1i giao, t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t h\u1ea3i quan, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. H\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1ch, kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y \u1ed3n \u00e0o nh\u01b0ng th\u1ea5m kh\u00e1 \u0111au.\u201d <\/i><\/p>\n

Ai c\u0169ng bi\u1ebft Vi\u1ec7t Nam ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng M\u1ef9 cho \u0111\u1ea7u ra (xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u) v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o Trung Qu\u1ed1c cho \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o (nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 m\u00e1y m\u00f3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi Vi\u1ec7t Nam ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00e9o l\u00e9o \u0111\u1ec3 v\u1eeba t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i, v\u1eeba gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u r\u1ee7i ro t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 \u201cph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1eabn nhau\u201d ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n, v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a, nh\u01b0ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n sang Vi\u1ec7t Nam?<\/p>\n

C\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi l\u00e0 ch\u01b0a ch\u1eafc, theo Ti\u1ebfn s\u1ef9 Nguy\u1ec5n Huy V\u0169 t\u1eeb Na Uy. Trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi RFA, \u00f4ng cho r\u1eb1ng c\u1ea7n nh\u00ecn b\u00e0n c\u1edd r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n, kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 so s\u00e1nh m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf M\u1ef9 \u00e1p l\u00ean Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ch\u00e2u \u00c1 xung quanh m\u00e0 c\u1ea7n nh\u00ecn sang Nam M\u1ef9. V\u00ec sao? V\u00ec M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng \u0111ang nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb Nam M\u1ef9 c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t ch\u1ee7ng lo\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam: n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n. V\u1eady M\u1ef9 \u00e1p thu\u1ebf l\u00ean c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc Nam M\u1ef9 bao nhi\u00eau? Ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda Vi\u1ec7t Nam, t\u1ee9c 10%. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 Vi\u1ec7t Nam s\u1ebd \u0111\u1eaft h\u01a1n h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 t\u1eeb Nam M\u1ef9, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd ch\u1ecdn h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 r\u1ebb h\u01a1n. <\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf cho h\u00e0ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u201cqu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh\u201d l\u00e0 40%, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 15% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf 55% T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump \u00e1p l\u00ean Trung Qu\u1ed1c theo tho\u1ea3 thu\u1eadn M\u1ef9 Trung \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 5. <\/p>\n

M\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch 15% n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p Trung Qu\u1ed1c chuy\u1ec3n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t sang Vi\u1ec7t Nam, tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng ty h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u00f4ng? Theo TS Nguy\u1ec5n Huy V\u0169 th\u00ec ch\u01b0a ch\u1eafc. V\u00ec m\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam. T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1edbi chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb coi l\u00e0 h\u00e0ng \u201cqu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh\u201d \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn. M\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro h\u01a1n ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn m\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch thu\u1ebf quan 15% r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u. <\/p>\n

Li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i \u00edch ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng n\u00e0o cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam?<\/b><\/p>\n

M\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch thu\u1ebf quan gi\u1eefa Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf v\u1ec1 thu\u1ebf m\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u1eebng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng so v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c sau cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 n\u0103m 2018. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng <\/a>sang Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf 20% s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf \u201cb\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi\u201d trong quan h\u1ec7 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9-Vi\u1ec7t d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump.<\/p>\n

D\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n m\u1edbi \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o Vi\u1ec7t Nam, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 trong ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ph\u1ee5 tr\u1ee3 cho th\u1ea5y doanh nghi\u1ec7p Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \u0111\u00f3n \u0111\u1ea7u xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc. <\/p>\n

Nhi\u1ec1u doanh nghi\u1ec7p xe h\u01a1i Trung Qu\u1ed1c nh\u01b0 Haima, Great Wall Motors, Hongqi, FAW, Chery \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch gia nh\u1eadp ho\u1eb7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam. T\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2023, g\u00e3 kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 xe \u0111i\u1ec7n BYD c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u1ee5 t\u00f9ng xe h\u01a1i<\/a> t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng. <\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n c\u0169: n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 l\u1ea1c h\u1eadu. Trong khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c h\u01a1n m\u01b0\u1eddi n\u0103m qua \u0111\u00e3 \u201cv\u01b0\u01a1n m\u00ecnh\u201d v\u00e0o \u201ck\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean m\u1edbi\u201d, l\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn, Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1eabn d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i \u1edf giai \u0111o\u1ea1n l\u1eafp r\u00e1p c\u00f4ng \u0111o\u1ea1n cu\u1ed1i. Trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi RFA, Ti\u1ebfn s\u1ef9 Kinh t\u1ebf Nguy\u1ec5n Huy V\u0169 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t m\u00e0 ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Vi\u1ec7t Nam ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 thu h\u00fat FDI m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3, n\u00e2ng cao n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7. Kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u00e1ch n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eebng b\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u1ebfn l\u00ean c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n kh\u00fac gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cao h\u01a1n trong chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. M\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia kh\u00e1c t\u1eeb H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i c\u0169ng c\u00f3 c\u00f9ng chung nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1edbi TS Nguy\u1ec5n Huy V\u0169:<\/p>\n

\u201cHi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, vi\u1ec7c d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t sang Vi\u1ec7t Nam ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng \u0111o\u1ea1n l\u1eafp r\u00e1p cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 chu\u1ed7i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y gi\u00fap Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u0103ng kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 n\u00e2ng cao n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba. <\/i><\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7t Nam li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng? Kh\u00f4ng. Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng con ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi. Cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng T\u00f4 L\u00e2m \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9nh s\u1eeda c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u b\u1ed9 m\u00e1y, ch\u1ee9 con ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ee7a b\u1ed9 m\u00e1y \u0111\u00f3 v\u1eabn nh\u01b0 c\u0169. L\u00e0m sao c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec m\u1edbi v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng con ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u0169 k\u1ef9 \u0111\u00f3?\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tin t\u1eeb RFA Read More<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u00e1p thu\u1ebf 20% cho h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0o M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 40% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u201cqu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh\u201d qua Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0o M\u1ef9, m\u1ed9t bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. \u0110\u1ed5i l\u1ea1i, Vi\u1ec7t Nam m\u1edf c\u1eeda th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n cho h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a …<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":58352,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[239],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-vietnam"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietvalley.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58351","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietvalley.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietvalley.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietvalley.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietvalley.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58351"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vietvalley.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58351\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietvalley.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58352"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietvalley.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietvalley.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietvalley.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}